US Eyes Kharg Island Seizure as Analysts Warn of Wider War

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Kharg Island.

As US President Donald Trump considers deploying ground forces to seize Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil hub, analysts warn that while such an operation could be executed swiftly, it would expose American troops to considerable dangerous and risk prolonging the conflict rather than bringing it to a close.

According to a Reuters report on Friday, US officials said the administration is weighing the option of sending ground troops to the island. They added that two Marine Corps units are expected to arrive in the region towards the end of the month. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that the Pentagon is also preparing to airlift thousands of troops, providing the president with broader military options in the event of a ground assault.

Drones and mines

Analysts suggested that although US forces could likely secure the island in a relatively short time, this would not necessarily deliver the swift and decisive outcome sought by the White House, particularly given public opposition to the war ahead of November’s midterm elections. Ryan Probst and Cameron McMillan of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued that “seizing and occupying Kharg Island is more likely to expand and prolong the war than to achieve a decisive victory.”

They cautioned that US troops would face significant threats from missile and drone attacks, including small but highly effective drones already widely used in the war in Ukraine. The analysts warned that any successful strikes could be exploited for propaganda, with footage potentially circulated online.

They further noted that the administration may view control of the island as a means to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, thereby strengthening Washington’s position in any future negotiations.

However, Tehran could respond by intensifying the deployment of naval mines, including floating devices launched from the coast, further endangering maritime traffic in waters already heavily disrupted by the conflict.

Logistical challenges

For his part, Joseph Votel, former head of US Central Command, said that occupying the island might require between 800 and 1,000 troops. However, he stressed that such a force would depend on extensive logistical support, which would itself need to be protected.

He added that US personnel would remain highly exposed and questioned whether capturing the island would offer any clear strategic advantage. “It would be a rather unusual decision,” he said, “but it is certainly within US capabilities if required.”

Strategic significance

Kharg Island lies approximately 26 kilometres off Iran’s northern Gulf coast and around 483 kilometres north-west of the Strait of Hormuz. Positioned in deep waters suitable for large oil tankers unable to access Iran’s shallow mainland ports, the island plays a vital role in the country’s energy exports.

Handling around 90 per cent of Iran’s oil shipments, control of the island would allow the United States to significantly disrupt Tehran’s oil trade, placing substantial pressure on its economy. Iran remains the third-largest producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.



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