Kurds Have Every Reason to Be Cautious

PUKMEDIA

Manish Rai, Australian Geopolitical Analyst and Columnist for Middle-East.

Written by Manish Rai, Australian Geopolitical Analyst and Columnist for Middle-East.

Initially, Washington sought assistance from a well-known U.S. ally in the Middle East, the Kurds, to assist in the destabilisation of the Iranian regime, which had been subjected to relentless bombardment by the United States and Israel. The Islamic Republic has long been persecuting Iran’s Kurdish minority, which comprises between 10% and 12% of the nation’s total population. Much prior to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Kurdish organisations were engaged in a conflict with the central Iranian government. Consequently, the United States and Israel considered the possibility of deploying Kurdish forces on the ground to engage Iranian security forces. Reports have been circulating since the conflict commenced, indicating that the CIA is actively engaged in the process of arming Kurdish opposition forces with the intention of fostering a popular uprising within Iran. However, the Kurds appeared to be hesitant to engage in this conflict due to their genuine apprehensions. The United States president, Donald Trump, has recently reversed his stance on Kurdish forces. He stated that he did not wish for Kurdish fighters to participate in the war against Iran, despite having previously expressed support for the idea. This change is likely due to the Kurds’ lukewarm response. Let us examine some of the most legitimate concerns of Kurds.

Trust Deficit—The Kurds have a long and bitter history of being courted by great powers during conflicts and then abandoned afterward. Iraqi forces defeated the Kurds in 1975, and President Gerald Ford neglected to safeguard them. In 1988, President Ronald Reagan failed to prevent Iraqi forces from employing chemical weapons against the Kurds. In 1990, President George W. Bush urged the Kurds to rebel against Saddam Hussein after he invaded Kuwait. However, he stood by as Iraqi forces mercilessly suppressed the rebellion. The Mahabad Republic was established in 1946 with the assistance of Soviet forces that were occupying Azerbaijani territory and what is now Iranian Kurdistan. It lasted for ten short months. As a result of Western officials’ ability to convince the Soviets to withdraw, the Mahabad Republic collapsed rapidly. In January of this year, President Trump permitted Syrian forces to seize Kurdish territory that had been acquired during the Syrian civil war and in bloody conflicts against the Islamic State group. Kurds desired a robust, long-term strategic alliance rather than a transactional one, given their prior experiences.

Long-Term Commitment Missing—The Kurdish forces were not provided with any assurances regarding the continuity of support in the long term by the United States and Israel. Kurds desired a more comprehensive and enduring alliance, rather than a short-term tactical alliance. The Kurdish factions were cautious because of this lack of commitment. Before fully committing, they are purportedly seeking political assurances from the Trump administration.

Ambiguity about support in case of Turkish aggression—Türkiye, which has been engaged in a protracted struggle against Kurdish separatist movements for decades, would also be alarmed by a potential Kurdish insurrection. Türkiye is home to the world’s largest Kurdish population. Ankara regards any development that appears to bring the region closer to the establishment of a broader Kurdish state or an autonomous area as anathema and a direct challenge to Turkish territorial integrity. The Turks will not permit the establishment of another robust Kurdish entity near their frontier. Washington and Tel Aviv did not specify whether they would offer Kurdish forces protection in the event of Turkish aggression.

Conflict Expansion—Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, its primary armed service, has already initiated attacks on Kurdish positions in both Iraq and Iran during the ongoing conflict. These attacks have been conducted with a heavy bombardment of drones and missiles. The Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq have both issued statements that deny their involvement in or support of any prospective cross-border incursion by Iranian Kurds based in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). If the Iranian Kurdish groups based in KRI launch attacks against Iran, Iranian proxies in Iraq may become more active. Tehran could mobilise Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq to target the positions of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in KRI and to exert both political and military pressure on Kurdish authorities. Such activities will endanger the stability of Iraqi-Kurdistan.

Loss of Domestic Credibility—A potential propaganda advantage for the Islamic Republic is an armed Kurdish insurgency or that of any ethnic or separatist group. Iran is a nation with nearly uninterrupted territorial integrity and a history that spans 2,500 years. It is difficult to envision a strategy that is more likely to bolster a rally-around-the-flag effect, fragment the opposition, and keep anti-regime Iranians at home. Although it is possible that it could become bogged down and result in the deaths of a few additional Iranian soldiers, it is exceedingly improbable that it will have a substantial effect on the battlefield. Even though the Kurdish coalition’s involvement in the conflict may present a military challenge, it could also provide Tehran with a political opportunity. Tehran could also leverage the specter of separatism to bolster Persian nationalism, fragment the opposition, and portray the war as a foreign-backed dismemberment rather than a domestic revolt, thereby providing a rationale for mass arrests and violence against Kurds within Iran.

Kurdish fighters are ferocious. They are one of the more pro-Western and pro-American ethnic groups in the region. They are partners and contributed to the stabilisation of certain regions of Iraq during the U.S. invasion. They played a critical role in the defeat of ISIS in Iraq when the Iraqi state was on the brink of disintegration in 2014 and in the destruction of ISIS in Syria. They are the type of ally that many Americans wish the Middle East had more of: courageous, disciplined, and willing to fight. However, the Kurds have never received the support they deserve, which is why they have decided not to participate in a perilous conflict in a hasty manner this time. Kurds know very well that they will incur substantial losses as a result of any miscalculation.