Japan Votes in Rare Mid-Winter Election as Takaichi Poised for Victory

Reuters

A boy looks on as his mother casts her ballot for a general election at a polling station in Tokyo on Sunday.

Voters across Japan are braving heavy snowfallHook to cast their ballots in a snap general election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose ruling coalition is widely expected to secure a decisive victory, according to opinion polls.

This marks Japan’s first mid-winter election in 36 years, as national polls are typically held during milder seasons. However, Takaichi called the election shortly after winning her party’s leadership race, seeking a fresh public mandate.

Polling suggests that her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in coalition with the populist Japanese Innovation Party, could win as many as 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House.

The projected outcome represents a significant turnaround for the LDP, which previously lost its long-standing coalition partner and parliamentary majority amid corruption scandals and rising living costs.

Following the resignation of two LDP prime ministers whose approval ratings collapsed, Takaichi has emerged as a popular figure among voters. She has gained support by pledging tax cuts and government subsidies, though critics question whether increased spending will benefit Japan’s sluggish economy, given that the country carries one of the highest levels of public debt among developed nations.

Political observers say Takaichi’s personal popularity could boost the LDP’s electoral performance, although severe weather may suppress voter turnout, particularly in northern and eastern regions.

Early voting figures indicate that turnout has already been affected. Approximately 4.6 million people voted in advance, representing a 2.5 per cent decline compared with the 2024 election, a drop largely attributed to adverse weather conditions.

Several areas, including Niigata Prefecture in central Japan, reported heavy snowfall on Sunday. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said that 37 train lines and 58 ferry routes were suspended, while 54 flights were cancelled as of Sunday morning. Rare snowfall was also recorded in Tokyo as voters made their way to polling stations.

An admirer of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi has long sought to become Japan’s “Iron Lady”. A close ally of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, she promotes similar policies, including a strong national defence posture and a nationalist agenda.

Despite holding conservative views on gender and family issues, Takaichi has gained notable support among younger voters aged between 18 and 30, according to polls. Since taking office in October, her government’s approval ratings have largely remained above 70 per cent.

She has also built a strong presence on social media, with 2.6 million followers on X. A campaign video led by Takaichi has been viewed more than 100 million times in under ten days.

The 64-year-old has also become an unlikely fashion icon as "sanakatsu" - which roughly translates to "Sanae-mania" - has spread. The black leather tote bag she is often seen carrying has sold out and the pink pen she used at her first press conference has gone viral.

However, some observers remain unconvinced that Takaichi’s personal popularity will translate into electoral success.

Since 2023, the LDP has been embroiled in a political fundraising scandal that led to the resignation of four cabinet ministers and prompted a corruption investigation, significantly damaging public trust.

The snap election represents a calculated risk for Takaichi, as her party now faces a more united opposition. The LDP’s former long-time coalition partner, Komeito, has joined forces with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to form the largest opposition bloc in the Lower House.

Another major challenge for the LDP is persuading voters that its expansionary spending plans will not further weaken Japan’s already fragile public finances.

While the government’s policy package may provide short-term relief to households, it “fails to address the underlying problems of weak productivity and stagnant real wages”, wrote Masahiko Takeda, a senior fellow specialising in Asia at the Australian National University, in an article published this week.

Concerns have also been raised over Takaichi’s foreign and security policy. She has, according to analyst Nakano, placed herself in “a deep hole” by antagonising China.

Relations with Beijing, Japan’s largest trading partner, deteriorated sharply late last year after Takaichi suggested that Japan could deploy its Self-Defence Forces in response to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. The dispute has pushed the already strained bilateral relationship to its lowest point in more than a decade.

At the same time, Takaichi has sought to strengthen ties with the United States as Tokyo looks to stabilise relations with its closest ally. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Takaichi, a rare intervention by an American leader in Japan’s domestic politics.

Source: BBC



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