A Political Analysis of Ilham Ahmed’s Statements and the Future of Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria

Abbas Abdul Razzaq

Written by Abbas Abdul Razzaq, retired university professor and a veteran journalist.
Translated by Sharo Abbas


Recent statements by Ilham Ahmed regarding ongoing understandings between the Autonomous Administration and Damascus mark a pivotal political juncture in the trajectory of the Syrian Kurdish issue. This is not a final agreement, but rather a calculated attempt to re-engineer the relationship between the Autonomous Administration project and the logic of the Syrian central state, set against a backdrop of intense regional and international complexity.
These developments signal a gradual transition from open conflict to a phase of "conditional settlement." Here, stakeholders are attempting to consolidate gains within a fragile equilibrium of military power, political legitimacy, and international guarantees.

I. Reconfiguring the Security Sphere: Sovereignty vs. Duality
A cornerstone of these new understandings is the integration of Asayish (internal security) forces into the Syrian Ministry of Interior—a move laden with dual meaning. On one hand, it represents a tacit recognition by Damascus of an organised Kurdish security apparatus. On the other, it opens the door for the gradual containment of the Autonomous Administration within central state institutions.
From a political science perspective, this reflects a model of "Sovereign Duality." In this framework, the central authority and local actors share administrative and security control without a clear constitutional roadmap. This highlights the transitional nature of North and East Syria, where "de facto" legitimacy intersects with "official" state legitimacy.
The refusal to individually integrate the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) and the insistence on maintaining their military structure within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) underscores a strategic reality: the SDF views military dismantling as the immediate loss of political leverage. Thus, accepting administrative integration while retaining relative military independence is the core of the current negotiation strategy.
II. Administration and Education: The Struggle for Identity
The appointment of a Governor for Hasakah suggests an effort to pull the province back into the formal state hierarchy while preserving the specificities of the Autonomous Administration. However, such an arrangement remains precarious without explicit constitutional recognition of political or administrative decentralisation.
In this context, the recognition of diplomas from Autonomous Administration educational institutions serves as a symbolic and strategic win, granting partial legitimacy to institutions born outside the state system. Nevertheless, the limited scope of Kurdish-language education in current drafts reveals a persistent nationalist state logic—one that views cultural pluralism as a limited "privilege" rather than a constitutional right.
III. International Guarantees: Realism vs. the Illusion of Protection
References to international actors like France and the United States highlight that this potential agreement is a product of global power balances rather than a purely internal Syrian dialogue. Historically, however, Kurdish experiences with international guarantees demand a critical approach.
Through the lens of Political Realism, international guarantees are not moral commitments; they are tools tethered to strategic interests. Consequently, the longevity of these promises depends on their alignment with the shifting priorities of major powers, rather than their inherent justice or legitimacy.
IV. The Turkish Equation and Regional Security
The prospect of a Turkish withdrawal from Afrin and Ras al-Ayn (Sere Kaniye) remains one of the most contentious points. For Ankara, these regions are not mere bargaining chips; they are essential to a national security strategy aimed at containing the Kurdish project in Syria.
Any potential Turkish withdrawal would likely only occur within a grand regional bargain involving the future of the SDF, the Ankara-Washington relationship, and the Russian-Iranian balance of power. This confirms that the fate of the Autonomous Administration is decided not only in Damascus or Qamishli, but in foreign capitals.
V. The Kurdistan Region: The Limits of Mediation
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has emerged as a political mediator, reflecting the evolution of the Kurdish issue from a local concern to an interconnected regional one. While helpful, this mediation is not neutral; it is governed by complex economic and political calculations that can serve as both a bridge for settlement and a source of pressure on the Autonomous Administration’s political project.

VI. Future Scenarios: Consolidation, Containment, or Collapse
The current trajectory suggests three primary paths forward:
- Gradual Consolidation: Current understandings evolve into a stable political formula, ensuring decentralisation and recognition of Kurdish identity within the Syrian state.
- Centralised Containment: Damascus successfully absorbs the Administration’s institutions piece-by-piece, eroding its autonomy and restoring the traditional central state model.
- Security Collapse: The breakdown of understandings due to Turkish intervention or a shift in international backing, leading to a return to armed conflict.
Current political indicators suggest that Scenario Two (Containment) is the most probable in the medium term, as the balance of power leans toward Damascus while long-term international support for the Autonomous Administration remains limited.

Conclusion
Ilham Ahmed’s statements reveal a rare transitional moment in the Syrian conflict, where projects of power, identity, and sovereignty converge. This is not the end of the struggle, but the beginning of a new chapter in negotiating the very meaning of the Syrian state. The fundamental question is no longer if the Autonomous Administration will survive, but under what conditions and within what constitutional framework it will exist. Between recognition and containment, the future of Syria's Kurds remains the ultimate test for the future of Syria itself.